clock Feb 15, 2006 2:37 am US/Pacific

What's Your Risk Of Death In The Next Four Years?

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(AP) CHICAGO If you're over 50, this test developed by researchers at the San Francisco Veterans Affairs Medical Center attempts to calculate your risk of death within four years. Of course, it's not foolproof, but the researchers say it can give you a rough idea of your survival chances. The test appears in Wednesday's Journal of the American Medical Association:

1. Age: 60-64 years old = 1 point; 65-69 = 2 points; 70-74 = 3 points; 75-79 = 4 points; 80-84 = 5 points; 85 and older = 7 points.

2. Male or Female: Male = 2 points.
3. Body-Mass Index: Less than 25 (normal weight or less) = 1 point. (Calculate by multiplying height in inches times height in inches; then divide weight in pounds by that total; then multiply the total by 703.)

4. Diabetes: 2 points.
5. Cancer (excluding minor skin cancers): 2 points.
6. Chronic lung disease that limits activities or requires oxygen use at home: 2 points.
7. Congestive heart failure: 2 points.
8. Cigarette smoking in the past week: 2 points.
9. Difficulty bathing/showering because of a health or memory problem: 2 points.
10. Difficulty managing money, paying bills, keeping track of expenses because of a health or memory problem: 2 points.
11. Difficulty walking several blocks because of a health problem: 2 points.
12. Difficulty pushing or pulling large objects like a living room chair because of a health problem: 1 point.

Score:
0 to 5 points = less than a 4 percent risk of dying; 6-9 points = 15 percent risk; 10-13 points = 42 percent risk; 14 or more points = 64 percent risk.

Note: Researchers say the one point penalty for having a body-mass index under 25 (normal weight or less) is based on findings that being underweight is a health risk for elderly people.


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